At the 2026 Ecobank Nigeria Customers Forum, the chief economist of African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Yemi Kale, said the success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will hinge more on financing structures than on trade volumes among African countries.
Delivering the keynote address at the February 17 event hosted by Ecobank Nigeria, Kale argued that while much attention has focused on boosting intra-African trade, the real determinant of AfCFTA’s impact will be the strength and efficiency of financial systems supporting cross-border commerce.
Speaking against the backdrop of shifting global economic dynamics, Kale urged analysts assessing Nigeria’s 2026 outlook—amid what some describe as “Trump 2.0” and broader geopolitical realignments—to adopt a wider lens. He described the ongoing tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions as more than a temporary downturn.
“What we are witnessing is a structural regime change in the way trade, investment, and corporate strategy are organised globally,” he said.
According to Kale, the previous era of globalisation prioritised efficiency, with multinational firms outsourcing labour and production to minimise costs. That model is now giving way to a more protectionist environment in which sectors such as energy, semiconductors, food security and technology are treated as national security priorities. Governments, he noted, are deploying subsidies, incentives and regulatory measures to rebuild domestic capacity in strategic industries.
His presentation, titled Strengthening Regional Integration for Economic Transformation, focused on the implementation phase of the African Continental Free Trade Area. So far, 54 African countries have signed the agreement, representing a combined GDP of about $3 trillion. The pact is expected to lift intra-African trade from its current 15–18 percent to over 30 percent.
However, Kale stressed that higher trade volumes alone will not guarantee success. “The key question is how these transactions will be financed,” he implied, pointing to the crucial role of African financial institutions.
That is where Ecobank comes in. The pan-African lender operates about 1,300 branches across 36 sub-Saharan African countries, supported by more than 2,000 ATMs and 13,800 point-of-sale terminals. Ecobank Nigeria’s capital base has surpassed N200 billion, positioning it—alongside other recapitalised banks—to finance expanding intra-African trade flows.
The forum, now in its second edition and held at the Ecobank Pan-African Centre in Lagos, was designed to address customer concerns in a pre-election year marked by economic uncertainty. Bolaji Lawal, managing director and regional executive of Ecobank Nigeria, said discussions were tailored to issues most relevant to clients, including trade, foreign exchange liquidity, interest rates, export proceeds and remittances.
The event featured two panel sessions covering AfCFTA implementation, FX liquidity, foreign and portfolio investment flows, and broader trade finance issues. Panelists included Kale and treasury and trade experts from companies such as Dangote Cement, CFAO Nigeria Ltd, Agro Trader Group, GZ Industries, Promasidor Nigeria Ltd and Airtel Nigeria..